Oregon’s 5th may see fewer campaign dollars as forecasters shift away from ‘toss-up’ | Elections
BEND, Ore. — Will Central Oregonians see fewer ads next year in the race for Oregon’s 5th Congressional District than in the past two cycles? That could be the case if the predictions of two major election forecasters pan out.
Both the Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia Center for Politics — better known as Saturday's Crystal Ball — are both rating the Oregon 5th District as “Likely Democrat.” That generally means it is seen as a fairly safe bet at this point that the Democratic nominee has the advantage, although the rating can shift one way or the other in the next 11 months.
That’s a much different view than the 2022 and 2024 election cycles when, for most or all of the race, the forecasters called it a “toss-up” that could go either way.
The 5th District was redrawn after the 2020 Census to include areas near Portland all the way down to Bend. In 2022, Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer won the district 50.9% to 48.8% over Jamie McLeod-Skinner. Two years later, Chavez-DeRemer was defeated by Democrat Janelle Bynum, 47.7% – 45%.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik said what’s changed this year is the national map and where Republicans will be placing their priorities. Plus, it’s a midterm year which, most of the time, tends to favor the party that’s not in The White House.
“And I just don’t think it’s going to be a focus for Republicans in 2026 when, for the most part, they’re either playing defense across the map or they have a handful of targets that are more attractive on paper than Oregon Five is.”
Kondik said he also expects fewer dollars to be spent by both sides on this campaign, at least from national sources.
Bynum has not formally announced her reelection. Democrat Zeva Rosenbaum and Republican Jonathan Lockwood have both filed to run. Deschutes County Commissioner Patti Adair announced she is running as a Republican, but has yet to file for the race.
As for Oregon’s 2nd District, which covers Eastern Oregon and all the areas of Central Oregon that the 5th District doesn’t, both forecasters have it rated as a Safe Republican district. Rep. Cliff Bentz, R-Ore., is running for re-election against multiple challengers.
