7 p.m. Tropical Storm Rafael Update
SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – Thunderstorms continue to build around the core of Rafael and intensification is indicated. It is expected that the tropical storm will become a hurricane later tonight. Tropical storm force winds will move into the Florida keys tomorrow. The tropical storm force winds extend outward 105 miles. Currently the western part of Jamaica is seeing the worst Rafael will serve up to them. Strong gusty tropical storm winds, heavy rains. Tomorrow the Caymans could see a surge of 6 to 9 feet.
Rafael is becoming better organized. Rafael will continue to move to the northwest for the next few days and strengthen as it does so. Models continue to be divided between a more northerly verses westerly motion toward the end of the forecast track. The official track is a blend of the two possible cases. It is forecast to be a hurricane as it moves into the Gulf. There are no changes to watches, warnings, or advisories at this time.
The strong high-pressure ridge that has brought us sunny afternoons and mostly rain-free skies will start drifting east. This shift is in response to an approaching upper-level trough advancing slowly from the west. As the high moves into the Atlantic, our winds will shift to the southeast, introducing more moisture and raising dewpoints into the mid-70s—a level typical of a late summer afternoon. This will increase our “feels like” temperature into the mid-90s, with afternoon air temperatures reaching the mid-80s.
Clouds will thicken in the afternoon, and showers will become more frequent than in recent days. You can expect breezy conditions, with gusts reaching up to 25 mph. However, the more significant weather changes will arrive on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, a tropical cyclone—likely strengthening into Hurricane Rafael—will enter Gulf waters. This system will funnel moisture across the state. While widespread flooding is not anticipated due to the intermittent nature of the rainfall, rain totals may reach several inches before the storm moves away on Thursday. Although we’re under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, recent dry conditions mean any risk of flooding remains low.
The storm will stay far enough offshore that storm surge will not be a concern along the coast. Additionally, the atmospheric conditions are not conducive to tornado formation, so severe weather is not expected.
By Thursday evening, rain chances will drop to 20%, with isolated showers possible. It will remain humid, but we’ll start to dry out.
On Friday, we can look forward to more sunshine and drier air moving in.
Copyright 2024 WWSB. All rights reserved.
