Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 forecast to become a hurricane
SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is drifting northward through the Caribbean with sustained winds of 35 mph. It is still not organized enough to meet the criteria of a named storm, but it is very likely to become Tropical Storm Rafael within the next 12 to 24 hours.
The current forecast shows the disturbance becoming a Category 1 Hurricane as it moves toward Jamaica and Cuba. The high terrain of west Cuba will weaken the storm as it crosses the island, and increasing wind shear once it enters the Gulf of Mexico is expected to prevent any significant strengthening as it passes near Florida.
Rain and thunderstorms should be expected on the Suncoast Wednesday night and Thursday as the system passes to our south and west as a tropical storm, though exact details of timing and severity are uncertain at this time. Significant wind and storm surge impacts are unlikely.
After that time, models diverge in where they predict the system will go. The National Hurricane Center forecast shows it moving northwest into the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday, but they stress that the forecast for late this week is much more uncertain than usual.
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