Rafael path tracker. System near Bahamas
Rafael weakened into a tropical storm overnight, with sustained winds of 50 mph on a westerly path away from Florida and is expected to continue to steadily weaken over the next few days, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.
After that, Rafael is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday.
According to the NHC, heavy rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from Rafael is expected to lead to 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts to 10 inches, across portions of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning, potentially leading to significant flash flooding.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Rafael
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Wave action could bring significant overwash and minor coastal flooding to the Florida Keys and the southwestern part of the Florida Peninsula, AccuWeather meteorologists said.
While Rafael poses no direct threat to land, swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast.
Rafael hit western Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane Wednesday and took out the entire island’s electrical grid before entering the Gulf of Mexico.
Elsewhere, a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the central Bahamas is bringing heavy rains and thunderstorms to the area but has a low chance of development over the next week.
The next named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season will be Sara.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 4 p.m. EST Saturday, Nov. 9:
Tropical Storm Rafael: What you should know
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
- Location: About 315 miles north-northwest of Progreso, Mexico
- Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph
- Present movement: West-northwest at 5 mph
- Minimum central pressure: 1000 MB
At 4 p.m. EST, the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 91.7 West.
Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph.
The storm is expected to slow down and meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected through early next week. Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by early Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Rafael
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael
Florida impacts from Tropical Storm Rafael
Potential impacts for Florida from the National Hurricane Center:
- Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
National Hurricane Center map: What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Near the Bahamas: A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the central Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or two while it moves westward to west-northwestward. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible across the Bahamas through Sunday.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
- Formation chance through seven days: low, 10 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When does hurricane season end?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
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