System in Caribbean could become Tropical Storm Sara, AccuWeather says
The National Hurricane Center says a tropical wave currently dumping torrential rain in the Caribbean is likely to develop into a tropical depression within the next two to three days and continue to develop as it moves over the western Caribbean Sea.
AccuWeather forecasters are predicting it will be Tropical Storm Saraand saying it could threaten Florida as a hurricane next week.
“We’ll likely be dealing with a hurricane as we head into this weekend. There is increasing confidence that a tropical storm will develop in the central to western Caribbean later this week,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in an email release. “We could be dealing with a storm that rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane in these very conducive conditions. The atmosphere is primed for development.”
The wave is on course to approach the same region of warm water that produced hurricanes Rafael, Milton and Helene. What happens next depends on the position of a dome of high pressure along the southern Atlantic coast.
- If the high pressure stays where it is, it will likely steer the storm into Central America or southeastern Mexico later this weekend to next week, AccuWeather said.
- If the dome of high pressure moves away or weakens, it could allow steering breezes to guide the storm toward the Florida Keys and South Florida or along the Gulf coast.
Meanwhile, remnants of Rafael may meander around the Gulf of Mexico and get swept up into a cold front moving over the U.S. Wednesday and Thursday, bringing heavy rain to Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Tenneessee, and the tip of the Florida Panhandle. The northern Gulf Coast, including Florida, can expect high surf and dangerous rip currents.
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The next named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season would be Sara.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 1 p.m. EST Tuesday, Nov. 12:
National Hurricane Center map: What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Central and Western Caribbean Sea: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.
Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend.
The system is forecast to begin moving slowly northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 60 percent.
- Formation chance through seven days: high, 90 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When does hurricane season end?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
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(This story was updated with new information.)
