Tropical Storm Helene update, cooler air arriving
Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s but will feel like the mid to upper 90s. There is a chance for rain, but most spots will stay dry. A better chance for rain arrives Wednesday as a front passes through. That will bring us scattered showers along with dry air to start our Thursday. Expect breezy conditions along with highs to only reach the low to mid 80s for Thursday and Friday. Here is the latest on the Tropics:The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to watch Tropical Storm Helene in the Northwestern Caribbean. The storm is moving northwest at 12 mph with estimated maximum sustained winds at 45 mph and an estimated central pressure of 999 mb.The storm is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and will likely strengthen into Hurricane that day as well.The current track shows landfall around the Big Bend of Florida as a Category 3 storm.The forecast tracks are clustering pretty well and taking the storm to the Big Bend of Florida and could impact the towns of Apalachicola or Perry if it would keep its current course.Our forecast set up for what will be steering the tropical system, is an unusual one. A storm system will get pinched off from the steering winds of the jet stream, and will be “cut off” allowing itself to spin around and meander wherever it likes over the South Central U.S. by midweek.Forecasts are in excellent agreement for these storms to merge once the tropical system moves on shore. Any change in placement of the “cut off low” will have a big influence on where the tropical system will track before making landfall. Cut off lows are know to be an unreliable forecast if the outlook is more than two days out. I have a bit more confidence in the exact track of the tropical system today, but I’d still word it as low to medium.Deterministic forecast data are still in pretty good agreement in taking the storm well east of New Orlans and Southeast Louisiana and making landfall somewhere around Thursday evening.After the beginning of the day with a trend much farther east out of the best forecast here in the U.S., the midday data made a jog west to be more in line with the NHC’s official track.Forecasts out of Europe continue to track close to the NHC’s official path, but today’s midday data are very much in line with the U.S. forecast and just east of the official track.Forecast data out of Canada, Germany, and Japan are more in line with the European forecast.We will be adding each new data to this article as it comes in throughout the week.Be sure to keep checking in here where the whole WDSU First Warning Weather team will be updating this story with each new piece of information as it’s issued or updated.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s but will feel like the mid to upper 90s. There is a chance for rain, but most spots will stay dry.
A better chance for rain arrives Wednesday as a front passes through. That will bring us scattered showers along with dry air to start our Thursday. Expect breezy conditions along with highs to only reach the low to mid 80s for Thursday and Friday.
Here is the latest on the Tropics:
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to watch Tropical Storm Helene in the Northwestern Caribbean. The storm is moving northwest at 12 mph with estimated maximum sustained winds at 45 mph and an estimated central pressure of 999 mb.
The storm is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and will likely strengthen into Hurricane that day as well.
The current track shows landfall around the Big Bend of Florida as a Category 3 storm.
The forecast tracks are clustering pretty well and taking the storm to the Big Bend of Florida and could impact the towns of Apalachicola or Perry if it would keep its current course.
Our forecast set up for what will be steering the tropical system, is an unusual one. A storm system will get pinched off from the steering winds of the jet stream, and will be “cut off” allowing itself to spin around and meander wherever it likes over the South Central U.S. by midweek.
Forecasts are in excellent agreement for these storms to merge once the tropical system moves on shore. Any change in placement of the “cut off low” will have a big influence on where the tropical system will track before making landfall. Cut off lows are know to be an unreliable forecast if the outlook is more than two days out. I have a bit more confidence in the exact track of the tropical system today, but I’d still word it as low to medium.
Deterministic forecast data are still in pretty good agreement in taking the storm well east of New Orlans and Southeast Louisiana and making landfall somewhere around Thursday evening.
After the beginning of the day with a trend much farther east out of the best forecast here in the U.S., the midday data made a jog west to be more in line with the NHC’s official track.
Forecasts out of Europe continue to track close to the NHC’s official path, but today’s midday data are very much in line with the U.S. forecast and just east of the official track.
Forecast data out of Canada, Germany, and Japan are more in line with the European forecast.
We will be adding each new data to this article as it comes in throughout the week.
Be sure to keep checking in here where the whole WDSU First Warning Weather team will be updating this story with each new piece of information as it’s issued or updated.
