Tropical Storm Kirk, Isaac, Joyce. Spaghetti models
(This story was updated to add new information.)
The National Hurricane Center is busy, tracking five systems in the Atlantic basin.
The biggest concern to Florida and the U.S. is a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, which could become a tropical depression later late this week or over the weekend as it follows a path similar to major Hurricane Helene, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters are advising residents along the Gulf Coast to closely monitor the system.
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At 5 p.m., Tropical Storm Kirk was 800 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands with sustained winds at 60 mph and moving at 12 mph.
Kirk is expected to become “a very large major hurricane over the Central tropical Atlantic ocean in a few days,” according to the Hurricane Center. Current models show it curving north into the middle of the Atlantic, well away from the U.S.
On the bright side, former Hurricane Isaac is now post-tropical today and the NHC has given its last advisory on the system. Former Tropical Storm Joyce barely remains a tropical cyclone, according to the NHC’s update. Neither system was expected to impact the U.S.
Two systems out there — including the one in the Caribbean — are also expected to strengthen in the coming days. The other system is located just off the coast of Africa.
Is another hurricane heading toward Florida?
Not at this time but a tropical depression or storm may form later this week as a developing system moves from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico.
AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin said an area of high pressure is forecast to be centered over the eastern United States during the second half of next week, which may push any brewing tropical storm farther west when compared to Helene’s path.
“At this early stage, however, it is too early to rule out any possibilities regarding the future track of a potential tropical storm,” DePodwin said.
Regardless, residents from Mexico to the Gulf Coast of the United States are urged to remain vigilant to what’s happening in the Caribbean.
Racing the Caribbean disturbance for the next name of the 2024 hurricane season is a tropical wave south of Cabo Verde Islands, west of Africa.
The next names of the season are Kirk, Leslie and Milton.
Here’s the latest update from the National Hurricane Center as of 5 p.m. Monday, Sept. 30:
Tropical Storm Kirk: What you should know
- Location: 800 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
- Maximum sustained winds: 60 mph
- Movement: west at 12 mph
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression 12
At 5 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 35.7 West.
Kirk is moving toward the west near 12 mph, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.
A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast by Wednesday and that motion should continue through Thursday.
Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph with higher gusts.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Kirk is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday and could become a major hurricane on Wednesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.
Post-Tropical Storm Isaac: What you should know
- Location: 480 miles north-northwest of the Azores
- Maximum sustained winds: 60 mph
- Movement: east-northeast at 17 mph
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Isaac
Isaac is slowly weakening and is post-tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. Isaac poses no threat to the U.S.
Tropical Depression Joyce: What you should know
- Location: 970 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
- Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph
- Movement: north at 2 mph
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Joyce
Joyce is moving toward the north near 2 mph and a slow northward motion is expected to continue for the next day or two.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joyce should become a remnant low soon.
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Upper-level winds appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is very likely to form in a few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 50 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Tropical Storm Isaac, Tropical Depression Joyce and Tropical Storm Kirk aren’t expected to affect Florida or the U.S.
All residents along the Gulf Coast, including Florida, should watch the disturbance showing potential for development in the Caribbean. It’s still too early to determine size, strength or direction but “a second potential threat to the Gulf Coast is unfortunately plausible in the upcoming week,” according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
The other tropical wave out there is still to far from the U.S. to determine whether there will be any impact.s
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
There is not threat to land from any new storms in the tropics on Sunday.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
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When is hurricane season over?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season was Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What’s next?
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(This story was updated to add new information.)
