Tropical Storm Rafael update, track path, spaghetti models
Tropical Storm Rafael formed Monday afternoon in the Caribbean and was moving near Jamaica, where tropical storm conditions are expected later tonight.
National Hurricane Center. Forecasters say it will be a hurricane by the time it enters the southeast Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday night. The Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West of the Channel 5 bridge are now under a Tropical Storm Watch.
The western Caribbean will see the heaviest rainfall over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week with 3 to 6 inches expected, and up to 9 inches in some areas, with potential for flooding and mudslides. The Cayman Islands and parts of Cuba are under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica.
Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during mid- to late week, forecasters said.
While the idea of another hurricane coming near the state is alarming, “the risks of damaging wind or surge on the U.S. Gulf Coast remain quite low due to hostile conditions near shore,” said WeatherTiger chief meteorologist Ryan Truchelut, “and enhanced rain chances” should Tropical Storm Rafael’s only meaningful impact on Florida.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Patty dissipated out in the northern Atlantic. The NHC is also watching an area of low pressure near the northern Leeward Islands that could develop in a few days.
There are no threats today to land on the U.S. mainland and hurricane strikes in November remain rare.
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
The next names in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are Sara and Tony.
Will it be raining when I vote?Here’s Florida’s weather forecast for Election Day
Here’s what’s out there as of 7 p.m. Monday, Nov. 4:
Tropical Storm Rafael: Is a hurricane heading toward Florida?
At 7 p.m. EST, the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 76.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the north near 9 mph. A northwestward motion is expected to begin later tonight and forecast the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located by Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 76.9 West.
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica during the overnight period, be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecasted and the system could become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.t to continue for the next few days.
Where is Tropical Storm Rafael?
- Location: About 150 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, about 370 miles southeast of Grand Cayman
- Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 mph
- Present movement: North at 9 mph
- Minimum central pressure: 1000 MB
Who is likely to be impacted by Tropical Storm Rafael?
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late tonight and are possible in central Cuba on Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible.
Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during mid- to late week.
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days.
Watches, warnings issued ahead of Tropical Storm Rafael
Here are the latest watches and warnings issued for areas threatened by Potential Tropical Storm Eighteen:
Hurricane Warning:
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Hurricane Watch:
- Cuban Province of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and The Isle of Youth
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical Storm Warning:
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical Storm Watch:
- Cuban Province of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Blind of Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas
- Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
“Interests in the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system as tropical storm watches could be required for portions of these areas later today,” the NHC said.
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Southeastern Atlantic: An area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward Islands in a few days. Some slow development of this system is possible after that time as it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
Countdown clock: When will hurricane season end?
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
(This story has been updated with new information.)
