Tropics update:Tropical Storm Patty next week?
Will the approach of Halloween scare away any tropical threats?
With the holiday just a week away, that’s about when AccuWeather meteorologists say there’s a potential for tropical development in the Caribbean.
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map Thursday is showing no disturbances and none expected over the next seven days. Remember, though, conditions can change at any time and residents — especially those in hard-hit Florida — should always keep monitoring the tropics.
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The Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t end until Nov. 30, although storms can — and have — formed after that date, and even before the official start of hurricane season on June 1.
The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Rafael.
Here’s the latest advisory from the NHC as of 2 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 24:
Tropical Storm Patty? Can Florida expect another storm or hurricane?
No, but AccuWeather meteorologists said there is a medium chance of tropical development in the Caribbean Sea next week.
“We suspect there will be another attempt for a tropical depression or tropical storm to brew in the western Caribbean during the middle to the latter part of next week,” said Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather chief on-air meteorologist.
Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have cooled and are closer to average for this time of year, but waters in the Caribbean are “quite warm,” and remain well above the historical average, AccuWeather said.
Those warm water temperatures, along with low wind shear, mean a tropical threat could develop in the western Caribbean late next week.
“Tropical storms that form in this area late in October and early in November tend to track into Central America or possibly to the north-northeast toward Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas.
“However, a track into Florida or the southeastern U.S. mainland is not out of the question at this early juncture,” AccuWeather said.
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
As of 2 p.m., the National Hurricane Center was tracking no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin, which consists of the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
While there is nothing on the tropical outlook map, NHC forecasters did say there are a couple of tropical waves out there, including one in the eastern Caribbean:
- Central Atlantic: A tropical wave is near 53W from 15N southward, and moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.
- Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave along 70W from 17N south is moving west around 11 mph.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
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When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Countdown clock: When will hurricane season end?
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
What’s next?
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(This story was updated to add new information.)
