Tropical Storm Sara forms, could threaten Florida as hurricane
- Tropical Depression Nineteen formed Thursday morning
- The system is expected to become tropical Storm Sara later today
- It’s too soon to tell how strong it will get or whether it will threaten Florida
Tropical Storm Sara formed this afternoon and threatens to bring “life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides” to Honduras throughout the weekend, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. A turn toward Florida is still possible, forecasters said.
“We now expect this storm to spend more time over land in Central America. That will reduce the wind intensity before it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. This storm could be drawn to the northeast by a departing area of high pressure over Florida. A dip in the jet stream over the central U.S. will create a pathway for this storm to be slingshotted toward Florida,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said in an email release.
“We could see heavy rainfall and flooding concerns in parts of central and south Florida next week,” he said. “Florida does not need more tropical storm impacts. Many people are still recovering and trying to rebuild from hurricane landfalls earlier this year.”
The NHC forecast expects Tropical Storm Sara to weaken to a tropical depression by Monday while still over Central America before it re-enters the Gulf of Mexico, where it could strengthen again.
“If it has spent days over land, that could mean a less-defined low merging with the front, with impacts mostly in the form of enhanced showers and thunderstorms across the state,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at Tallahassee-based WeatherTiger.
“If it has spent no or limited time over Central America, a legitimate hurricane threat to the Florida peninsula is a realistic scenario. Most likely, that conditional threat would focus on Southwest Florida or the Keys, with the potential for crossover impacts in Southeast Florida, as in 1999’s Irene or 2005’s Wilma,” he said.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Nineteen
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November hurricane landfalls are rare, but they have happened. The next named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season would be Sara.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 1 p.m. EST Thursday, Nov. 14:
Tropical Storm Sara: What you should know
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
- Location: 15.9n 83.5W, About 165 thousand East-Southeast of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, 65 thousand Northeast of Cabo thanks to God on The Nicaragua/Honduras Border
- Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph
- Present movement: West at 10 mph
- Minimum central pressure: 998 MB
How strong is Tropical Storm Sara and where is it going?
At 4 p.m. EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 83.5 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 10 mph. A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.
A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next couple of days, and approach the coast of Belize on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible if the center of Sara remains offshore of the northern coast of Belize. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, primarily to the north of the center.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Sara
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Sara
Watches, warnings issued
For an explanation of what the watches and warnings mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.
Tropical storm warning:
- The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
- The Bay Islands of Honduras
Tropical storm watch:
- The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
Will Tropical Storm Sara be the next hurricane to hit Florida?
It’s too soon to tell if it will, although some models suggest it could hit the state.
In the NHC’s latest update, forecasters said a strong mid-level ridge is steering the system westward toward Central America and the storm will meander this weekend after the ridge breaks down.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center
- Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.
- Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
- The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by early next week where there is a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates.
- It is too soon to determine what impacts, if any, the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.
Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Sara get?
- As of 10 a.m.: 35 mph
- 12 hours: 40 mph
- 24 hours: 45 mph, near the coast
- 36 hours: 45 mph, near the coast
- 48 hours: 45 mph, near the coast
- 60 hours: 50 mph, near the coast
- 72 hours: 50 mph, over water
- 96 hours: 35 mph, inland
- 120 hours: 35 mph, over water
What impact could Tropical Storm Sara have?
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possibly in the watch area beginning later today.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
National Hurricane Center map: What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
When is hurricane season in Florida?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
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What do the watches and warning mean?
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
What’s next?
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(This story was updated with new information.)
