NHC, AccuWeather warn of new storm. Is Tropical Storm Peggy brewing?
UPDATE: Tropical development by next week is more likely in the Friday NHC update.
The odds have increased for a Tropical Storm Patty to form in November.
National Hurricane Center forecasters now say there’s a 60% chance that a broad area of low pressure developing over the southwestern Caribbean Sea could become a tropical depression over the weekend or early next week. AccuWeather forecasters peg the odds at nearly 90%.
But whether a new storm would threaten Florida depends on the strength of an area of high pressure expected to develop over the east coast of the U.S. next week.
“Should tropical development occur in the Caribbean Sea next week, there are two scenarios for movement: one toward Central America and another near the Yucatan Peninsula,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Grady Gilman said. “A more northern track would elevate the risk of impacts to the eastern Gulf coast, likely in the Nov. 6-11 time frame.”
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While the conditions that produced hurricanes Helene and Milton remain the same, the area has been kept relatively quiet by high wind shear that kept showers and thunderstorms from organizing. But that’s ending soon, according to AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
“Next week, most of the wind shear will shift to the north of the Caribbean, and so it will basically create a pocket with high ocean temperatures, plenty of moisture and very low wind shear that will be favorable for tropical development,” DaSilva said.
There’s also another area with a low chance for development over the weekend or early next week. This one is located east-southeast of Floridaaccording to AccuWeather, but is unlikely to develop.
The 2024 hurricane season isn’t over yet, and November (and even December) storms are entirely possible. The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Rafael.
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Here’s the latest advisory from the NHC as of 5 a.m., Thursday, Oct. 31:
Tropical Storm Patty? Is another storm or hurricane heading toward Florida?
If Patty develops next week, there are two potential paths depending on conditions.
An area of high pressure expected to develop over the east coast of the U.S. next week may decide where this one is going. If it’s strong enough it could push the storm into Central America. If not, the storm could threaten the Florida coast.
November brings tropical development closer to Florida, US
Since 1851, three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida in November.
While the months earlier in the Atlantic hurricane season typically see tropical waves emerge off the African coast that give people plenty of advance notice as they move across the Atlantic, that’s not the case for the last month of the season.
“As we move into early November, the focus for tropical development shifts closer to the United States. Typically, the areas of focus late in the season are the Caribbean and off the Southeast coast,” DaSilva said.
Tropical depression could form late this week in Caribbean
Southwestern Caribbean Sea: A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next several days across portions of the area from Nicaragua southeastward and eastward to northern Colombia.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 60 percent.
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles: A trough of low pressure near Puerto Rico is producing widespread cloudiness and showers over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Leeward Islands, and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the northeastern Caribbean.
Slow development of this system is possible during the next 2-3 days as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10 percent.
North Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms have developed near the center of a storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located about 550 miles west of the western Azores. However, any additional development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is expected to be slow to occur as the system moves eastward during the next few days. Additional information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Regardless of development, widespread downpours are expected over much of the Caribbean this week, AccuWeather said. Life-threatening mudslides and flash flooding can result, even in the unlikely event that a tropical depression or tropical storm does not develop.
Residents of the entire state of Florida up to the Carolinas should keep a close eye on the system currently in the Caribbean, DaSilva said.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
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When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Countdown clock: When will hurricane season end?
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
What’s next?
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(This story was updated to add new information.)
